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Economia

Como o Nordeste vai puxar o crescimento do Brasil em 2026

Enquanto o Brasil como um todo deve crescer cerca de 1,6% neste ano, o Nordeste aponta para uma alta de 2,3%.
Eliseu Lins, da Agência NE9
23 de fevereiro de 2026 - às 08:17
Atualizado 23 de fevereiro de 2026 - às 08:17
5 min de leitura
Nordeste crescendo
A economia do Nordeste continua crescendo. Foto: Montagem de imagens do Freepik
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Se você acompanha as notícias sobre o Brasil, já deve ter ouvido falar que a economia do país vai desacelerar um pouco o crescimento em 2026. Contudo, tem uma notícia boa vindo do Nordeste: a região está preparada mais uma vez para crescer e surpreender.

Enquanto o país como um todo deve crescer cerca de 1,6% neste ano, o Nordeste aponta para uma alta de 2,3%. Esse número coloca a região no centro das atenções, ao lado do Norte, e mostra que, mesmo em tempos de juros altos e desafios, o sol do desenvolvimento continua brilhando por lá.

Mas o que está fazendo a diferença? Por que o Nordeste, que já é a terceira maior economia entre as regiões do país, vai acelerar o passo em 2026?

Quais os três motores do crescimento do Nordeste?

A princípio, imagine um carro subindo uma ladeira. Para ele não perder força, é preciso que vários motores funcionem bem. No caso do Nordeste, três “motores” estão ligados e trabalhando juntos:

1. Mais dinheiro no bolso do povo (e o comércio agradece)
Sabe quando a gente tem um dinheirinho extra no fim do mês? Dá pra comprar aquilo que estava precisando, ou até sair para comer um pastel com a família, não é?
Pois é, no Nordeste, esse “dinheiro extra” está chegando por meio de programas sociais importantes, como o Luz para Todos e o Gás para o Povo, além da reforma do Imposto de Renda. Essas iniciativas fazem com que as famílias tenham uma renda maior disponível. E com mais gente podendo comprar, o comércio e o setor de serviços (lojas, bares, salões de beleza, oficinas) se aquecem, gerando mais empregos e movimentando a economia da vizinhança.

2. A indústria voltando com tudo
No ano passado, algumas refinarias de petróleo em Pernambuco e no Rio Grande do Norte precisaram dar uma paradinha para manutenção. Em 2026, elas estão de volta à ativa! Isso significa mais produção, mais empregos na indústria e mais força para a economia da região. É como se uma máquina importante tivesse sido consertada e agora estivesse funcionando a todo vapor novamente.

3. A força da agricultura: a vez da cana-de-açúcar
O agronegócio nordestino também está de parabéns. No ano passado, o destaque foi para o algodão, a soja e o milho. Agora, em 2026, é a vez da cana-de-açúcar brilhar. A produção deve crescer e ajudar a manter o campo forte e produtivo, mesmo depois de um ano tão bom para outras culturas.

Cana-de-acucar-foto CNA
A cana-de-acucar será o destaque da agricultura do Nordeste em 2026.-foto CNA

E o que dizem os especialistas?

Em entrevista ao Valor, a economista Camila Saito, que estudou a fundo esses números, explica que a combinação desses fatores é a chave para o sucesso da região. “O Nordeste está sendo beneficiado pelo mercado de trabalho aquecido e pelos serviços, tudo por causa do aumento da renda das famílias. E a indústria e a agricultura estão dando aquela força extra”, resume.judado pela recuperação da agricultura, que sofreu com a seca no ano passado.

Nem todo mundo vê o crescimento da mesma forma

Antes de mais nada, é importante saber que existem outras opiniões. Ao mesmo tempo, o banco Bradesco, por exemplo, também fez suas contas e, embora concorde que o Centro-Oeste deve crescer bastante (puxado pela pecuária), vê o Nordeste crescendo um pouco menos em 2026, perto de 1%.

Por que essa diferença? Para os economistas do banco, o Nordeste ainda tem um desafio grande: o desemprego. Apesar de ser a região mais beneficiada pela isenção do Imposto de Renda, ela ainda tem o maior índice de pessoas procurando trabalho no país. Isso pode fazer com que o consumo das famílias desacelere mais do que em outras regiões.

LEIA TAMBÉM

O crescimento das regiões em números

Para ficar mais fácil de visualizar, olha só como o crescimento deve se distribuir pelo país em 2026:

RegiãoQuanto deve crescer em 2026Por que esse destaque?
Centro-Oeste2,5% (segundo o Bradesco)Fora da agropecuária, a renda do setor pecuário deve aumentar com a alta dos preços da carne.
Nordeste2,3%Mais dinheiro no bolso das pessoas com programas sociais e reforma do IR, indústria do petróleo retomando e boa safra de cana.
Norte2,3%Volta da produção nas minas e o grande impulso do turismo por causa da COP30.
Sul1,8% (segundo o Bradesco)Recuperação da agricultura após a seca e possível alta nos preços de carnes de frango e porco.
Sudeste1,4% (segundo o Bradesco)Região mais industrial, sofre mais com os juros altos, apesar da boa produção de petróleo e mineração.

Em suma, neste ano o mapa do crescimento no Brasil virou de ponta-cabeça. As regiões que antes cresciam menos estão mostrando sua força, impulsionadas por uma mistura de programas sociais, grandes eventos e a força da natureza, seja no campo ou no subsolo. Assim, é uma ótima notícia para o país, mostrando que o desenvolvimento pode e deve acontecer em todos os cantos do nosso Brasil!

Eliseu Lins

Eliseu Lins é baiano de nascimento e paraibano de coração. Jornalista formado na UFPB, tem mais de 20 anos de atuação na imprensa do Nordeste. É pós-graduado em jornalismo cultural e ocupa o cargo de editor-chefe do NE9 desde 2022.